Back when I was a beginner investor, KAZUKIN could see the future.
On TV, a commercial for Sourcenext's “Pocketalk” was playing.
A small interpreter device that translates into foreign languages when you speak to it.
The KAZUKIN of that time thought:
“This is going to be a hit!”
Overseas travel, foreign tourists, airports, hotels, the service industry. There were endless places to use it. An era was coming when people all over the world would hold a Pocketalk and chat.
Convinced, KAZUKIN bought Sourcenext stock.
Looking back, it was less company analysis than basically my impression of a commercial.
I thought I bought the future, but the future overtook me
Pocketalk itself was, I believe, a genuinely convenient product.
Take out the dedicated device, speak to it, and it translates immediately. It was easy to use even for people not used to smartphones, and it had the clarity unique to a dedicated translator.
But technology advanced tremendously.
Smartphones got better and better, and translation apps evolved rapidly. Voice input, camera translation, real-time translation—what one phone could do kept growing.
The dedicated translator that had made me feel so much of the future—even KAZUKIN, before long, found himself thinking,
“Can't a phone do that too?”
It felt like I had bought the future and the future had overtaken me.
Of course, a dedicated device has its own strengths.
You don't have to take out a phone and hunt for an app; it is immediately usable as an interpreting machine. There are surely still situations where that simplicity has value.
Even so, the world moved in a slightly different direction from the
“future where everyone in the world carries a Pocketalk”
that KAZUKIN imagined back then.
And then Covid dealt a heavy blow
And then Covid piled on.
A translator is strongly associated with use while traveling.
Overseas travel, foreign tourists, airports, hotels, tourist spots.
It is a product that truly shows its worth exactly where people cross borders.
But that very “travel” stopped worldwide.
People vanished from airports, overseas travel became a distant thing, and inbound tourism demand slammed on the brakes.
For a translator meant to connect the world, the world had closed.
It would be a bit sloppy to explain Pocketalk's struggle only with
“because phones can do it now.”
The advance of smartphones was certainly big.
But that was not all.
The world stopped moving.
Travel stopped.
Tourism stopped.
The future that KAZUKIN thought “is going to be a hit” was overtaken by smartphones, and Covid then paused even the stage where it was supposed to be used.
I thought I had bought the future, the future overtook me, and then the road to the future was closed to traffic.
No wonder the unrealized loss got pickled deep.
The one thing it never translated was the share price
Pocketalk translates foreign languages into Japanese.
But it did not come with a feature to translate unrealized losses into profits.
“This drop must be temporary.”
“If Pocketalk spreads more, it'll come back.”
“If a new product comes out, it'll revive.”
Thinking that, I kept holding, and before I knew it years had passed.
Alongside Nissan, Sourcenext became a perennially pickled stock enthroned in KAZUKIN's brokerage account.
It is less a holding than something close to an Important Cultural Property.
Even if the price rises a little, I have no desire to sell, and when it falls, I am no longer as surprised as before.
It is just there.
Every time I open my brokerage account, it gazes quietly at me.
“You still own me, right?”
Yes, I do.
My investment judgment as a beginner
Back then, KAZUKIN believed that if a product was attractive, the stock price would rise too.
I see a commercial.
I think it's handy.
I think everyone will buy it.
I think the stock will rise.
KAZUKIN, genius.
I was operating on this extremely beautiful investment theory.
Reality was:
I see a commercial.
I buy the stock.
Smartphones evolve.
Covid stops travel.
The price falls.
Pickling complete.
Nowadays I think a little more.
How much profit will that product actually generate?
Does it have a strength competitors can't easily copy?
Could technological progress change its position?
How much does it contribute to the company's overall profit?
And how much of that expectation does the current share price already reflect?
The KAZUKIN of that time did not yet have such perspectives.
A “good product” and a “good stock” are not necessarily the same.
Sourcenext is one of the stocks that taught KAZUKIN that.
The legend of my brokerage account
Sourcenext is now a legendary stock representing KAZUKIN's brokerage account.
It did not become a legend through glorious gains.
It became a legend by not being sold, not being forgotten, and staying there year after year.
Nissan and Sourcenext.
The two giants I bought in my beginner days are still quietly watching over KAZUKIN's investing life.
That said, if you look at Pocketalk lately, some interesting moves are appearing.
Beyond the image of a dedicated translator that individuals take on overseas trips, it is trying to expand into places that need face-to-face multilingual support: corporations, airports, hotels, healthcare and government offices.
Apparently a stationary AI interpreter is also on the way.
...Hey.
Isn't chapter two already starting?
Perhaps the “future of translation” that KAZUKIN once sensed will arrive in a slightly different form.
Not a future where every individual carries one,
but a future where AI interpreters are naturally placed wherever they are needed.
Thinking about it that way, I can't claim that KAZUKIN's eye back then was entirely wrong.
If that day comes, I want to say it proudly:
“KAZUKIN's eye was right after all.”
Just please don't ask how many years it took.
And even if chapter two begins, KAZUKIN's unrealized loss will not be automatically translated into profit.
For now, neither Pocketalk nor AI can solve that.
Summary
To KAZUKIN, Sourcenext is not merely a holding.
The momentum of my beginner days.
The day I sensed the future from a commercial.
The day I was astonished by how smartphones evolved.
The day Covid stopped the world.
And the present, quietly pickled in my brokerage account.
It is a memorable stock with all of that packed in.
Failure comes with investing.
What matters is laughing at the failure and applying it to your next investment.
Thinking that way, Sourcenext taught KAZUKIN a great deal.
Though the tuition was quite steep.
And the class is not over yet.
Will chapter two really begin?
Will KAZUKIN's pickling someday recover to the level of lightly pickled?
I will keep quietly watching from a corner of my brokerage account.
誰もいなくなったね‥
KAZUKIN Rating
- 📺 Decisiveness of investing from a single commercial — ★★★★★
- 🌏 The future I felt in Pocketalk — ★★★★★
- 📱 Frustration at being overtaken by smartphones — ★★★★★
- 🦠 Covid's double punch — ★★★★★
- 🈂️ Feature to translate unrealized losses into profit — ★☆☆☆☆ (still not installed)
- 🧊 Length of time pickled — ★★★★★
- 🤖 Hope for chapter two — ★★★☆☆
This article is KAZUKIN's personal opinion and record. Share prices, earnings and holdings mentioned here are as of the posting date and may have changed since. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular stock, and it does not guarantee future profits. Please make your own investment decisions.
Pocketalk is a trademark of Pocketalk Inc. This article is not an affiliation or advertisement with that company.
The illustration is an image based on KAZUKIN's experience. It may differ from real stores and products. It is not an official manufacturer image.